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Commercial Real Estate Pro Network

Commercial Real Estate Professionals who work with Investors, Buyers and Sellers of Commercial Real Estate. We discuss todays opportunities, problems & solutions in Commercial Real Estate.
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Now displaying: Page 1
Nov 8, 2022

I'd like to ask you, Vanderslice,

 

JACOB VANDERSLICE  43:50  

what has got a few thoughts here on the biggest risk? Yeah, risk is a subjective thing to a degree based on who you're talking to. I look at risk as the as the mitigation of a loss of principle. So what is the story on this deal that would have to occur where we would see a loss of capital, and we look at that more carefully than we do the upside scenario. upside is a lot more difficult to quantify. But finding a story that creates downside is what we try to just eliminate. And having in real estate finance when someone crashes and burns. It is almost always because of a cashflow issue. It's always a cash flow issue. There's there's certain circumstances where you can fail not because of cash flow, but you know, something maybe bigger COVID, for example, but we watch our cash flow very carefully, specifically in self storage. And when we buy a given deal, there are two risks to that to that acquisition. I think outside of things we can't control interest rates and cap rates where rates going to be involved. yours where Cap rates going to be in five years, we don't know, right, we can make a forecast we can be conservative. But we can control is our is our net operating income and and our revenue, we have control over that to a degree. But the two risks on a given storage acquisition, we believe are rents where rents today and where rents going to be, and is that revenue stream achievable and reasonable that we've written into our model. And secondly, it's kind of getting in the weeds. But property taxes, I think, are a major risk. And property taxes and self storage are variable just like any asset class from market to market, they're a lot higher in the Midwest than they might be in Denver. But because storage leases much like multifamily are basically full service, meaning the the tenant doesn't pay the property taxes, those come straight out of the bottom line. So if you're accruing for property taxes incorrectly, and you get reassessed, that's going to be a material change in your net operating income as well as the total value of your property. So that's something rents and taxes are something we really analyze very carefully. And to mitigate the risk on the property tax side, we accrue for a tax bill, that's a worst case scenario. So that it is inconceivable the property taxes in the in the foreseeable future will ever go above this figure. And that's what we approved for. And typically, we come in well below that figure, sometimes we get lucky, sometimes it just doesn't get reassessed. We'll do some creative transfer, things where we buy the entity versus buy the deal. But I know that seems kind of in the weeds. But if you think your property taxes are gonna be 100 grand, and then 140. That's a massive Delta. If you put a six cap or a five cap on that 40k In noi, you've missed the mark on your deals value by lots of money.

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