Darrin: [00:00:08] Jonathan McGuire what is the BIGGEST RISK you see that investors face? [00:00:13][5.5]
Jonathan: [00:00:17] I would say the BIGGEST RISK is not taking a serious look at Opportunity Zones. If if you don't do it and put put a little bit of sweat equity into this to see if you can you can make a deal fit inside of a zone. If you have a project underway or a potential project that you're looking at I mean you would be doing yourself a disservice if you have property or a business that it's going to be located in the zone and not take advantage of this. Now maybe you don't have capital gains so you can't do anything. But you know maybe you need some investors, and you need capital. Why take a debt interest? Let's get somebody with equity that wants to have a vested interest in seeing the business succeed and create an investment that works for them and for you. And then it's a win win on both sides. [00:00:17][0.0]
Darrin: [00:00:08] What is your BIGGEST RISK? [00:00:09][1.6]
Tim: [00:00:10] Sure. Great question and I pay a lot of attention to this because I've seen people make a lot of money and lose a lot of money in real estate. I want to make sure that I'm not making the same mistakes. The BIGGEST RISK, in me and my model and my business is probably tightening up of lending, tightening up of the banking. And so when I know how do you mitigate that right. Because my model is based on refinancing in 12 or 18 months. So one thing I could do is if I see the market shifting I can refinance sooner and I just don't get to take out like the refi cash out refight proceeds. Right. I can. I can refinance back out at my basis into long term debt at any time. The reason I wait until 12 months is typically because we could pull some money off the table distribute it. It pads the investors returns a little bit and makes them happy makes me more liquid to go qualify for more loans and things like that. But if I didn't if I didn't feel confident where the market would be twelve months from now I could definitely refinance sooner and at least get all my investors their money back out. And then just have long term debt in place and write out any sort of storm. The other thing that I do is I underwrite my projects as if it's going to be the loan to value is going to drop by 5 to 10 percent over the course the next 12 18 months. And then I also underwrite my jokes as if the interest rates are going to bump. Like right now my interest rates. I'm going to refinance right now my interest rates four point six percent and I'm underwriting my deals at 5.5 percent right now for anything that I'm acquiring today. So do I think to jump that much. I don't think so. But I want to be prepared for in case they do. So I'm underwriting it in a pretty conservative fashion making sure I'm making the offers at the price point that we need. And I mean it's such a low cost basis I'm buying at such wholesale prices that things would really have to shift hard for me to not be able to at least cash out my investors at the end of the day. So again I'm 30 to 40 percent below market values today and you know for traditional syndicators when they're looking out trying to forecast five years from now that's really hard. We could have three different presidents over the course next five years. Right. [00:02:25][134.3]
Darrin: [00:02:25] Right. [00:02:25][0.0]
Tim: [00:02:26] Versus forecasting out 12 months. It's a little bit more predictable of where the market's going to be in 12 months from now. You know interest rates aren't going to be at 18 percent or anything like that. Could they bump up maybe a half a point or a point? Yeah that might happen. Could lending tighten up a little bit? Yeah that could happen. But you know I'm at the point today where I have a big enough balance sheet and enough performing assets and enough cash flow coming in where even if the market shifts I'll still be a bankable. You know I'll still be able to put long term debt in place just maybe a little bit lower of a loan to value. And so. So that's that's really my greatest risk in my business. And you know if worst case scenario I got I got to ride out the storm and we can't refinance back out, my investors know that they're still gonna earn their 10 percent preferred rate of return on their money and they're OK with that. And if they have to ride it out you know 24 or thirty six or 48 months they're OK doing that. We have the asset. We're at a low enough basis we could sell it if we needed to or we could hang onto it. The cash flows enough the debt service coverage is high enough where we're able to cover all those expenses. [00:02:26][0.0]
Multifamily Mindset is key to growing true wealth in multifamily real estate.
Tim Bratz brokered his first commercial lease for a 400 square foot retail space which rented for $10,000 per month in New York, NY. When he realized the landlord was going to make almost $2,000,000 over the 12 year lease for this one space, he knew he was on the wrong side of the coin. He needed to be a landlord instead of a real estate broker if he wanted to create real wealth in real estate.
Since that time, Tim has flipped single family homes, wholesaled, owned single family rentals, turnkey rentals, and invested actively and passively in multifamily properties.
The first apartment building he purchased was an 8 unit property for $30,000 which he invested another $50,000 into. All in he is in for $10,000 per door, and it cash flows like crazy. Since this one property, he stopped investing in all other types of real estate except for multifamily.
Real wealth is not created on one commission from an individual transaction. It is created from residual income; getting paid repeatedly, month after month and year after year. Wealth in real estate is created over time, not by flipping property after property, but by holding the asset and letting it appreciate over the years.
Multifamily Mindset for Tim started with the realization that residual income was key. More wealth has been created in real estate. It’s a proven formula if you stick with it and have a vision.
The more he learned about real estate, the more he saw an opportunity for him. He also recognized the power and potential danger of leverage. When the 2008 crash happened, those with too much leverage, lost everything. While those with cash flowing assets, were able to ride out the storm.
When the banks were not lending, real estate investors with positive balance sheets and cash flowing properties were able to get loans, because they had cash flow. This allowed them to buy more and grow their portfolio.
You will pay for your education one way or another. If you decide to go it solo, and learn the hard way, on your own, you will pay for your education in costly mistakes and missed opportunities. If you elect to pay a mentor, you will be able to shorten your learning curve, and gain from your mentors experience, and mistakes so you won’t have to repeat them. The choice is yours.
There are tons of books and podcasts available for free. But these do not hold you accountable. How many times have you been to a seminar or read a book that inspired you to do great things. But as soon as you return home, you get into your regular routine and forget all the excitement and momentum you gained from the event. Having regular meetings with your mentor or mastermind group, will keep you on track and hold you accountable to yourself so that you reach your goals.
Tim has learned from books, podcasts and mentors, both bad and good. He has found his mastermind group has been the most beneficial for him. His mastermind group is where he learned from other investors who had passed through his current challenge.
Meeting regularly with his mentor or his mastermind has helped Tim create a portfolio valued at more than $250,000,000 in just over 4 years.
Tim had over 200 doors made up of a mix of single family and multifamily properties. When he took some time to reflect, the numbers did not lie. NInety percent of his wealth was from multifamily yet it accounted for only ten percent of his time. This aha, lead Tim to focus only on multifamily from that point forward.
If you don’t know where you want to go, it doesn’t matter which path you take. Know your why, and then back into the numbers to get you on the right path for where you want to end up. When you know what you want, you can ask better questions, on how you can accomplish your goal.
Take a day, schedule it, and periodically take stock of where you are and compare it to where you want to be. Then ask questions, and course correct.
Consistency is key to building a successful business. An apple a day keeps the doctor away, not seven apples on Sunday.
If you want to build a big business, there is no shortcut. Consistency is the key to growing a big business. If you want to build a big business, recognize that it will take time, and act consistently. When you do this over time, your efforts will accumulate and you will have success.
Tim recognizes that having a consistent marketing message in front of his key prospects is how he will reach his goals. This applies to both raising money, and buying apartments. In the communities where Tim is actively acquiring properties, everyone knows Tim buys apartments. Why? Because, for the past three years, he has marketed to owners, and residential brokers that “Tim buys Apartments”.
For investors looking to participate passively, Tim stays in front of them, and is constantly building his list. His consistent actions allows him to raise millions of dollars in a single webinar for any deal he has.
From his residential wholesale days, where he built his list of buyers and wholesalers, he recognized that wholesalers come across multifamily deals all the time, and usually throw them away. What if the wholesaler could make a referral fee by sending it to Tim?
Tim emails his list of wholesalers weekly, reminding them that he buys apartment buildings. Because these buyers come across multifamily opportunities regularly, and have nowhere to go, Tim has been able to make a win-win-win situation for the seller, wholesaler and Tim.
Tim has a unique syndication strategy for how he structures for his deals compared to traditional syndication models. Unlike others where investors may not see any return until the building sells, Tim offers a preferred return to investors from day one. As soon as the property is stabilized and can be refinanced, he pays back the investors their principal, replaces his bridge financing, and keeps his investors in the deal for 10 to 30 percent equity into perpetuity.
Investor benefits include: tax advantages because the preferred returns are long term capital gains. The investor gets their capital back for the next deal, and they get the long term equity build from their 10 - 30 percent investment with no capital in the deal.
For Tim, this has created a constant source of money looking for a return that is ready for the next deal.
Each week I ask my guest, “What is the Biggest Risk Real Estate Investors face?”
BIGGEST RISK: The BIGGEST Risk we face is the potential tightening up of the banks.
How do you manage the risk? The model is based on refinancing within 12 to 18 months. If we see the market shifting, we can refinance sooner, and not take out any proceeds. Usually we like to wait for 12 months so we can take out some proceeds. This allows us to pay a little more to our investors, and make them happy, and me a little more liquid so I can qualify for more loans. But if we had to refi before 12 months, we could just refi at our basis, lock into long term debt, and ride out the storm.
The other thing we do is underwrite our projects as if the loan to value is going to drop by 5 - 10% in 12 - 18 months and we assume that the interest rates will bump up 1 percent. Do I think these will happen? No. But, I want to be prepared for if they do.
For more go to:
Face Book: Tim Bratz
Podcast: Legacy Wealth Show
Event: Commercial Empire
Darrin: [00:00:09] What do you see is the BIGGEST RISK? [00:00:11][2.5]
Shoshana: [00:00:13] So I mean I think we've we've touched on it throughout this whole conversation. I think that 2008 for people is a very very large. I think that, we're in this phase where it cannot get all the numbers like this sort of KPI of our economy are looking pretty positive right. [00:00:33][20.4]
Shoshana: [00:00:35] And we know from lots of prior experience again, pick on our age again, sorry about that. That everything cyclical. And you know there's a new administration or there's not a new administration or there is a world event or there's changes in the job market. Unemployment, interest rates, etc. All of these factors have, we know from experience, have the ability to create pretty seismic shifts in investment markets across the board. We know this. And so, although there's a book called Irrational Exuberance that we're in this phase, where although we want to feel really excited about how everything looks right now. There is an American reality which is we are where we're always waiting for the other shoe to drop. And that's because for many of us we've seen the other shoe drop and we've paid that price. Myself I would I've been in the Internet space since 1997. I survived three bubbles and bursts in that time you know. Two thousand after 9/11 2008. And you know who. I don't think anybody would ever bet that it's not going to happen again no matter how good things look. So I think that risk is something that is inherent in this business. I think if you come from a variety of different places I think that what we need to do as a we call ourselves a direct to investor platform. So we're not a JP Morgan Chase or a sort of big institutional company that is not going to come across individual investors that we know and shake their hands and have a relationship with we can't afford to be that disconnected. So what we try to do, is and we've done this in the short time we've been around, is really like pull apart where risk sit. You know, what are people most worried about? And so I shared with you the data that we use I share with you the fact that we stay actively involved in the investment. I shared the fact that we have a thesis that says these are short term investments where volatility in the market is minimized. And we recently, about six months ago actually introduced a pretty revolutionary product where we actually provide equity protection on principles for certain ones of our investment. So it's a double layer of invest of a double layer of protection, excuse me. First layer is you as part of your investment a small piece of it goes into a retention fund like a social pool. And then when that's exhausted if an investment does not go well, which has not happened yet. Knock wood. Then the second layer, and you'll you know I'm sure that this will appeal to you as an insurance guy, is we have a reinsurance policy with one of the largest reinsurance companies called Everest RE. That that is there to provide that second layer of protection. Now, this protection does not is not on every one of our investments because as you probably can imagine the projected returns on an insured principal are going to be lower than on one that's not. You know, no pain no gain. High risk, high reward etc. And so but I think that you know that when my CEO Iran Roth walked into every story probably about a year and a half ago to say that he had this idea that we should insure people's investment everyone thought it's crazy. But if you think about it we invest you know we insure almost everything else; our lives, our homes. There's vacation insurance, there's weather insurance. Why not insure your principle on an investment. And so again I think we're looking to really think about what are the things people are most scared about from a risk perspective and find ways to mitigate them. And sometimes that is in the form of a policy. Sometimes it's in the form of a model like the way we do our business. Sometimes it's showing up in Georgia and making sure that an investment continues to stay on track. It depends what it is. [00:00:35][0.0]
Darrin: I've been asking my guests if they could identify what they see is the biggest risk. Again I'm not necessarily looking for a an insurance related question but if you could take a look at real estate investing and maybe you know how custom irrigation or I don't know how you want to view it but just in the bigger picture of risk if you could identify what you see is the the biggest risk.
Yonah: OK so I'll actually take this in a little bit of a different direction then maybe some of your other guests have and maybe you might be expecting but kind of going along with my you're just personal look on this. And it's really a risk for anything not necessarily specific to real estate. But more over the top applies to real estate. I think more than anything in my experience and that risk is actually arrogance.
OK so what I mean by that is when you are thinking that you're going about and you're making a million dollars and making 10 million dollars and it's all you you you you're right. You did it all. You know there is a certain when you start thinking like that you get into a very dangerous situation not just with yourself personally with the people around you. And everyone knows that real estate investing is really a team sport. And there are so many people that are involved.
So when you start to think just about yourself and think about how you did it all by yourself and how great I am. And obviously that's important. I'm not talking about you know low self-esteem here. But real humility means that I'm willing to cooperate and willing to learn from everyone around me. I realize that I can't do this on my own I realize that you know whatever talents I have you know are really God given gifts and I have to be grateful for that and recognize recognize that and use them. But at the same time don't think that you know I'm I'm the best thing in the world because that's the biggest risk.
As soon as you start thinking that history proves itself over and over and over again, you're bound to fail and you're bound to lose whatever you have built you lose whatever friends you made et cetera. And it's just the easy way to lose friends in general. So that's what I think the biggest risk is.
Darrin: What you see is the BIGGEST RISK?.
Ben: Well the BIGGEST RISK is always. You don't know what it is. And you know the the stupidest thing you can do in real estate is to buy for cash flow without putting any thought into how you're going to get out. So for me, we've been talking about risk management all this time. I underwrite 10 year hold. What do you think that for. Is that because I want to stay there for 10 years is because this is how I manage risk of what I don't know.
BIGGEST RISK with Jonathan Twombly - CREPN Radio
Darrin: [00:00:08] If you could identify and speak to what you see as the biggest risk that investors face. [00:00:13][5.5]
Jonathan: [00:00:15] So I think the biggest risk and this is a big part of why we sold the property is actually, I think the biggest risk that investors face is actually the economy. And that's gonna sound very strange given that we've got you know the best unemployment rate in 50 years and the economy is chugging along pretty quickly. That's precisely the time at which the economy becomes a risk. You know the economy is not a risk after a crash after a crash all the risk is out of the economy. You're going to that's when growth starts right again. So you're you're you're stepping into things as they're on an upswing when you're at the top. The only place to go is down. I think a lot of people are hoping that we're somehow magically going to stay at this, you know at the height of the economy for the indefinite future. And and that kind of hope is getting priced into deals. So people are pricing in, you know high employment. They're pricing in record high occupancies. They're pricing in rent growth that may or may not happen. But it all really depends on continued economic growth at the pace that we have it right now. So people are paying a premium for properties based on economic news, which honestly, if you look at history cannot sustain itself. And it can't sustain itself for very much longer. And you know when for instance, when employment reaches a peak is when it starts going down, like that sort of basic economics. If you follow the economic analysis that that's a lot of people writing right now. I mean that's that's pretty standard. You know a lot of people trying to figure out when this next recession is going to come. They're spending a lot of energy doing it and they're they're bad at predicting it. But I think everybody knows that something is coming. But in multi-family world they feel like a lot of people are are really turning a blind eye to it. Or, they're kind of giving some lip service to the fact that in the kind of you know an economic downturn is going to happen in the not too distant future. But they're not really adequately planning for this risk right. So you know. So I think that is the biggest risk. I think another big risk, and it's related is if you is relates to a big reason why we sold. If you're dealing with C properties. That the tenant class and see properties. This is also often referred to as the renter by necessity class. There are people who know they've they've got jobs they could pay the rent. This is market rent territory but in an economic downturn they will be hurt the worst they always are. You know in the last downturn we had I think 11 percent unemployment at the peak. But if you look at people with a four year college education their unemployment rate peaked at about 3 percent which means that for everybody else it was much higher. The further down and literally you know the charts will show you by education less education somebody had the higher the unemployment rate was. So if you're owning a property or looking at properties that are C class properties you're taking a big big risk that when the recession comes you're going to have a lot higher vacancy right in the hole. There's another mythology around multi-family investing which is that rentals do well in recessions. Right, and that that mythology comes from two things. One is that multi-family does better than other asset classes in recessions. It's more resilient for the reasons we talked about before because people don't go out of business. Right. So it does better. But I mean by better if you look at the last crash, you know multi-family I think fell in value by only 32 percent. It was the best performer of all the asset classes because it fell by only 32 percent in the last crash. Right. So which means others did much worse. Right. So because of that people have conflated that. And then also after the last crash when we had the housing foreclosure crisis then a lot of people moved into multifamily who had been owning before. So occupancy really shot up but they've also conflated that with the recession that didn't happen during the recession to happened after the recession. But times are still bad, so they still think of it as the recession but it wasn't. So when people say multi-family does well in a recession if they're buying based on that assumption they're really making a big mistake because it just emphatically does not do well in a recession. It just does less bad than other asset classes do. [00:00:15][0.0]
BIGGEST RISK with Reed Goossens - CREPN Radio
Darrin: [00:00:08] If you could identify what you see has the BIGGEST RISK you face as a department's syndicator? [00:00:15][7.4]
Reed: [00:00:19] From from an insurance point of view? [00:00:20][1.3]
Darrin: [00:00:21] No if it does not have to be an interesting point of view and I guess I want to make that very clear. If you've got it you can think of it in a way of just. I mean if you if you tie into it and that's fine but I'm really not looking at war conditions. [00:00:32][11.2]
Reed: [00:00:33] I can give you one on the insurance. So goes back to building construction best practices and in the 80s, assets were built without fire sprinklers. So you'll get to know that things that are built in the 90s and particularly in the early 2000s. Fire sprinklers are everywhere but it was required by code is code changed over the years. But if you go to 1980s asset or earlier they will probably not have fire sprinklers which means your insurance for fire is going to go up and your premiums going to go up. So, having the new crop of construction we talked about the nine foot ceilings, typically with nine foot ceilings, you'll have fire sprinkler heads. In my experience, things that are built in the mid 90s and sooner or later we'll have fire sprinklers and that will help you with insurance hail damage roof insurance all that sort of stuff. You're really going to be on top of when roofs need to be replaced. Depending when you're buying, like in Texas, we have a lot of hail storms. So a lot of companies insurance companies will replace roofs when the hail storm comes through. And we need to really be on top of that, when we look at the due diligence because a roof can cost you three or four hundred thousand bucks. And if you haven't You haven't budgeted for what's taken out of the exterior budget you're leasing office not look as good. So, that's the sort of insurance risk it'll look at as a syndicator. In terms of the BIGGEST RISK, there are so many risks. When you're when you're syndicator. It is obviously finding the right deal. If we stop any funding or deal underwriting it correctly what assumptions have you put into the underwriting to make sure that you protect your investors principle? Because you will we invest in real estate to make money. We don't invest in real estate to lose money. I think in terms of where we are in the market cycle we are looking at new types of assets from a risk point of view and it ties into insurance. We look at new build assets because there's less skeletons in the closet. They're individually metered, right. 1990s or early a built to thousands of individual meters on water on electric. They'll have fire sprinklers. They'll have individual heaters. They'll have individual high spec systems so there's less likely to have issues as you move down the track where ownership. There Is left heavy lifting we have to do. So you can go and buy an asset that was built 2000's at the same cap rate as you can buy an asset is built in the 1990s but there's going to 1980s I should say but that's going to there's gonna be a lot more potential risk items from an insurance point of view and a construction point of view that could come and bite you in the ass later on. So we look at that. We weigh that up and say I want to spend less money on the front end. I still get the same cap rate coming out of the gate. Why would it want would I go buy 1990s asset. The second thing is where are you buying. Core implies value add locations are extremely important. I would not be buying in the Treasury market right now. I'm buying where the population is growing. I'm buying with his multiple income employers. So there's a, people all always have a job. I'm looking I'm really I'm looking for a value add properties proposition. I don't want to buy something that is being touched by someone else because that's not a true value add. There's all these things out in the market right now. You know value add the whole exteriors being touched and you know 30 percent of the units are being touched and interiors and the brokers will sell it to us. I would just come and finish those off. Well one of one things we've seen as I explained before. You don't ever do 100 percent of the units you've got to come in and do 50 percent maybe a silver package you need to do maybe some that are a goal but you need to tend to send a gold and you leave the rest as classic because you want to offer that smorgasbord to people in these markets that you know. Remember we're in the game of affordable housing. We can't you know you can't come in and expect to buy a 1980s asset and increase the rent to two and a half thousand bucks a month like you get in Portland in Los Angeles. You know we're not in those markets. And if you are in those markets you're buying syndicating I bet you my bottom dollar it's not cash flowing because you're buying it at a cap rate of a 2 and 3 percent. So you've got to you've got to look at this somebody from risks from insurance to the top the bill to how where you're buying and where the path of progress is if you are buying in those secondary markets and how is that going to help you be future proof your investment just to make sure that the value is there and that you're going to your investors capital is protected and you've got to make money in the long term. So a number of things there for your listeners. [00:00:33][0.0]
Iintoo is an online real estate investment platform for accredited investors to access premium real estate investments.
Shoshana Winter managing director for iintoo USA, shares the opportunities for passive investors to take advantage of iintoo’s data science to achieve predictable returns.
The success of iintoo, is rooted in its data science. Digging into the numbers and looking for the trends are the key to identifying opportunities. What are the attributes of a particular market? How close is it to an urban center where housing is not affordable. Is the job market healthy? What about demand for housing? Does this market or industry have a cyclical basis?
Intoo has two investment options; single property or in a fund.
Through syndication, iintoo provides investors the opportunity to invest in a single commercial property with as little as $25,000. If you prefer to spread your risk to multiple properties and geographic areas, you can invest in a fund. The fund option has a minimum investment requirement of $30,000.
While the platform is online, and available 24 / 7, they recognize that many investors prefer the confidence that comes with personal contact. You want to know someone before investing hundreds of thousands of dollars. For this, iintoo provides the high level of touch including in person visits in the office, or video conferencing.
Currently iintoo’s model is an equity investment. All investments are placed as equity in a commercial property. In the future, it is expected that iintoo will have a debt option available.
Iintoo in joint venture with RREAF Holdings LLC, announced their acquisition of Realty Shares in May, 2019. Realty Shares was one of the pioneers in real estate crowdfunding, successfully closing over 1,100 deals in 40 different states. The acquisition increases iintoo’s investor count from about 50,000 investors to over 200,000.
Each week I ask my guest, “What is the Biggest Risk Real Estate Investors face?”
BIGGEST RISK: 2008 looms very large for people. All the KPI’s are looking for the positive signs. We know from experience that everything is cyclical. There’s a new administration, or not; a world event, changes in the job market, unemployment, interest rates, etc. All of the factors, we know from experience, have the ability to create a seismic shift in investment markets, across the board.
The book, Irrational Exuberance, that explains how we are in this phase where everything is good, but we are waiting for the other shoe to drop. Because, we’ve seen it happen.
Risk is inherent.
What iintoo does, and tries to do, is to pull apart risk. We ask, what are people most worried about? We use data. We stay actively involved. Our thesis is to stay in these investments for short terms, 3 years.
Most recently, we started providing “Equity Protection” for principals on certain funds of our investments. This provides a second layer of protection. The first layer is a portion of the proceeds go into a retention fund. These pooled funds are available if an investment goes bad. If the first layer gets exhausted, a second layer is available. This 2nd layer is through a reinsurance carrier, through Everest Re. and is available if the 1st layer is exhausted.
BIGGEST RISK with Brian Hennessey - CREPN Radio
Darrin: [00:00:07] The BIGGEST RISKthat either you face for the U.S. investors face regarding investing in commercial real estate. I'm not necessarily looking for an insurance related answer I wanna make sure that that's understood. But I wonder if you could speak to that for a second. [00:00:24][17.8]
Brian: [00:00:27] Sure. And I could put it pretty succinctly. Assume nothing. Don't assume that that seller would not do that to you or it's not that type of property or or that can't possibly be a problem right. If you assume anything, you have to assume there are multiple problems that are waiting to be discovered. That you don't know about yet. Because you could give me a brand new property and I will find some issues. May not be a lot, but I'll find some issues. So that's what the crux of, learning how to do the deep dive due diligence will do for you. It'll minimize that risk. So when it comes time for your earnest money deposit to go nonrefundable, you're comfortable with that decision. [00:00:27][0.0]