Info

Commercial Real Estate Pro Network

Commercial Real Estate Professionals who work with Investors, Buyers and Sellers of Commercial Real Estate. We discuss todays opportunities, problems & solutions in Commercial Real Estate.
RSS Feed Subscribe in Apple Podcasts
Commercial Real Estate Pro Network
2024
March
February
January


2023
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2022
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2021
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2020
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2019
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2018
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2017
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2016
December
November
October
September
August
July
May
April
March
February
January


2015
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


Categories

All Episodes
Archives
Categories
Now displaying: Page 1
Jul 5, 2022

I'd like to ask you, Nobu, Iguchi, what is the BIGGEST RISK?

 

Nobu Iguchi  

Yeah, this very deep question, but I think the, let me try kind of the short term and the long term, if I may, I think in the short term, so, you know, this is this is May, right, May of 2022, the world is looking, increasingly uncertain.  The economies looking increasingly after the inflation is through the roof. There's no, no indication is subsiding. And there's not a question that the Fed is going to keep raising interest rates. And even if they keep raising interest rates, which is basically I think, at this point, given, the question becomes, you know, is the interest rate? Is inflation actually going to come down? And what's the, let's say, stabilize the 4% 5%? I mean, is that acceptable to the Fed? And the likely answer is no, because they want the 2% interest rate, which is good for the economy, and that's their mandate. 

 

So if that's not acceptable, they may have to keep bringing interest rates even further up, which is a substantial risk for the, for the asset for the assets, asset prices, in general real estate, and also public market assets and private market assets. And, and also, it's an it's a risk to the economy. So it could lead to more job losses, unfortunately, and so on. So in the, in the short term, that's, that's, to me seems like a huge risk. For many of us a different context, it could be about our jobs, let's say, from an investor standpoint, for portfolio companies, the companies that we've invested in, I think there's a huge risk, they should prepare for it. So you know, for example, having not just having six months of cash in the bank, but you know, 18 months of cash in the bank, just in case, you know, there's a substantial food, our economy, they find it challenging to raise capital, and so on, and so forth. Real Estate operators. Again, it's the same where, you know, even though COVID, you know, in the United States seems to be to a large degree, you know, not a big, big factor anymore, and people are coming back to the office, perhaps that's going to have a substantially negative impact on our company's willingness to have more office space. Right. So I think that, to me, seems like a short term, big risk of like, in as big as through what the buffer should be, in each case, in one's case, to see it to prepare for the future. In the long term, what we see is an apology I have alergies today. 

 

But in the long term, what I would say is, even though, let's say with that sort of Outlook, technology companies, you've seen NASDAQ down a lot, you've seen venture valuation down a lot, right? And so on and so forth. But in the long term, we're very bullish still in, in, in technology, on technology, and in fact, are some of the best technology companies, including the say, Airbnb in the in the in real estate space, came out of basically a recessionary period. So even though that seems like a huge risk to have technology exposure, in the long term, there's a ton of risk in not investing in technology. So we talked about web three as one example. You don't have to necessarily invest in every single web three company or like, you know, adopt anything that comes out, but is keeping track of what's in the face. And even investing, let's say, as a real estate operator or investor and so on and so forth. And some of these, I think, actually, in a lot of ways mitigates risk. because there is a risk of obviously investing in failing in that, but also also other risks, which is you don't invest. And five years, 10 years later, you're kind of left behind. Right. So I think saying the short term there is the kind of inflation risks that could lead to potentially a recession that could lead to asset price. Coming down even further, in the long term, long term, that the risk is not investing in technology, and thereby being left behind.

0 Comments
Adding comments is not available at this time.