Darrin Gross:
I'd like to ask you, Kyle Tushaus, what is the biggest risk?
Kyle Tushaus
I think, right now everybody's kind of afraid of inflation, which is an interesting business environment to be in for real estate, because everybody kind of gravitates towards this industry is a safe haven. I think you can kind of take that a step further and think if I'm going to de risk myself from inflation, and I'll say inflation, I don't think is actually the risk of getting at its eventually I think there's a risk that I think a lot of people are not thinking about some are but I haven't seen any media headlines about it. But within real estate, right, you might say okay, well what's my what's my best inflation hedge within an inflation hedge? Right. And that would be a property that I can mark to market more often, right? So the reason why consumer durables doesn't do well, and inflation is because I can wait 10 years to buy my next car or washing machine. But bread and butter, I'm gonna buy that more often. And so that price can keep going up every time I transact. So how can I mimic that in real estate and well, the properties that get marked to market more often would be better and inflation environment. So hotels get marked to market every single morning. So it should be the best inflation hedge, but you've got the dual side of that sword, it says it's also discretionary spending. So be very careful on that front. But then, so maybe I'm okay with every year, say in multifamily. You know, the, the triple net 25 year lease would probably be the worst, depending on how that lease got written. So there's obviously a spectrum even within the inflation hedge that is our industry of commercial real estate. But the thing I haven't heard enough people talking about, and the thing that scares me the most and influences a lot of how we're going into these, these, this first phase of deals is that the labor risk that is kind of bubbling under the surface where you see a lot of these value add deals, I mean, people have been ever since 2008, value add has been kinda like the everybody, everybody and their cousin is getting into this idea of renovating a property and popping the value of it. But I think there's going to be a massive moving target into how well you control those costs. And so for like an interesting data points since about the early 70s. Productivity, or I'm sorry, compensation has gone up 115%, since the early 70s, which sounds great hiring 10 or 15% increase in compensation. And that's for non supervising roles. So the roles, the jobs that are actually doing the thing.
While productivity of the same jobs has gone up almost 250% During that same time, so there's this massive difference in the throughput that's being provided by somebody in our job versus what they're getting out of it. And I look at the landscape of people now for the first time in four years even know what inflation is. Our socio socio economic landscape is not great, there's a lot of political strife. And I feel like that gap is probably going to get closed to some degree. And so I see a big risk factor in those business models that are going to be very reliant upon labor as an input, because I think we're about to see a compression of that gap. And I think rightfully so, I mean, you look at some of the numbers, and it's just, I might be a little jaded, I came out of, I came out of school, after the Oh, eight collapse. And so I don't, I don't really have the, I don't have that much of an experience through that run up. But, you know, you look at what was accomplishable with, say, your bass degree, or even no degree 3040 years ago versus now and how much you know, someone's having to work to get the same throughput in terms of quality of life. I don't see it continuing status quo for much, much longer, maybe, you know, we kick the can a little bit longer, but I don't see people being willing to do it. And the great resignation might be sorted a first little cue of it. But yeah, I think I think what's about to follow inflation is and we talked about energy prices going up housing prices going up, when labor prices keep going up. And right now it's the remote workers that are driving, you know, the leverage in those negotiations, it'll eventually get to all labor. And if your investment thesis is heavily dependent upon labor, I would think of some ways to lock that in ways that we mitigate that, right? If I if I see a value add deal. It's got to be in a market where I've already got a pretty good relationship with the GC. And I can go to them and say, Do you want to be part of the GDP tranche? And so with that, I can say, you're now going to have equity incentive, not just, you know, hourly rate, or markup incentive. So, you know, let's put together a budget of do not to exceed and you control that cost, but you're also in our cap stack. Now, you know, outside of that, I would be very worried about taking that GC risk, because I hear horror stories of colleagues having guys walked off the job for $2 more an hour. And, you know, it kind of sucks when you've already pulled the debt on the deal. And you got, you know, this bridge loan kind of clock ticking away at you, but then you look at the data and you're kind of like, well, I don't necessarily disagree with it. I mean, someone offered me more you probably do the same thing. And so I think it's something that needs to be taken into consideration when you're when you're underwriting because I do think that's the next big wave to follow in this. disinflation run up.