Today, my guest is Matt Spagnolo. Matt is a former residential and commercial agent turned capital raiser now in capital markets with Colony Hills Capital as fund co manager, and in just a minute, we're going to speak with Matt Spanolo about capital markets and alternative investments.
https://www.colonyhillscapital.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-spagnolo/
J Darrin Gross:
I'd like to ask you, Matt Spagnalo, what is the BIGGEST RISK?
Matt Spagnolo:
Yeah, I would say the biggest risk in multi family has to be interest rates, right? Interest rates are something in I like to say the biggest risks, at least with what we do at colony, is something that we can't control, right? We believe in our team and the systems and processes that we've put in place, what we can control, we can live with with that, right? But what's tough is the items that we can't control, like you said, insurance and interest rates. So we've made a shift to help on the insurance side of things. Right? If the properties we had invested in Texas and in Florida in the southeast that maybe are seeing a higher jump in insurance, we are going to these properties in the northeast, like I mentioned, we're making that shift geographically. The insurance number itself might be high in the northeast, but the only thing that we care about as an operator is what is the year over year change? As long as that's consistent and relatively predictable, that's what's important to us, right? Because we can underwrite to that. But if you're in some of these states where it's very unpredictable, you could see a huge increase one year, and then it flat lines for a year or two, and then there's another massive increase. That volatility is something that that worries us. So we are going to markets where the year over year change, regardless of how expensive it is, is consistent and is relatively predictable, and has been for 15 to 20 years. So that's something that we're doing to try to eliminate that insurance risk, however, interest rates, one, nobody knows where they're going. And two, if they did, they probably wouldn't, wouldn't be working. They'd be they'd be on wall street somewhere. But right, it's up to the Fed to kind of control the Fed funds rate, and then that will also affect some of the other rates that we see in multifamily right? And even with Fed funds rate coming down, we've seen that the 10 year has has gone even higher recently. So that's that's something that we can't control. What we can do is make sure that we're buying our deals right at a good cost basis, but the sale right our cap rates, what we're buying and what we're selling at, really just depends on what the interest rate is. I mentioned earlier. We want to buy with that positive leverage. If the buyer on the back end of a deal that we are selling is using the same strategy, their purchase price is going to move not depending on the income of the property, but on what the interest rate is, right, if they have to get a new loan. So that's that's such a risk, and it's a very big one. But if we think that interest rates are going to find some sort of normalcy, or flat out, or flat line here, between that four to 6% range, I think that's something that we would, we would love to see, is, is some stability, right? Regardless of what the number is, just again the year over year change being consistent. So to answer your question, I'd have to pick interest rate risk.
Today, my guest is Katie Kim. Katie Kim is a visionary real estate developer and educator specializing in transforming overlooked urban spaces into thriving community enhancing developments, and in just a minute, we're going to speak with Katie about how to scale your real estate portfolio.
https://www.linkedin.com/company/thekatiekim/
https://www.instagram.com/thekatiekim/
https://www.youtube.com/@TheKatieKim
J Darrin Gross:
I'd like to ask you. Katie Kim, what is the biggest risk?
Katie Kim:
The biggest risk is it all not working out right and not going to plan, pretty much.
So we when we step into a development, I want to answer in two parts.
I want to answer an insurance side of risk, because I think insurance is a great way to do risk, and it's definitely part of our risk mitigation plan. But when we and when we step into putting together the development structure, it's more than what are you offering your investors, right? It's who's on the team in the development and what are they seeing as a risk and putting all those feedbacks and comments into that risk mitigation plan for the development itself, and communicating that to our investors and our bank and all of our team, and then also contingency, contingency, contingency on the financial side, for sure, but how do you make sure you have plan? A, B, C, D, you know, really, EF all the way to Z for each item in the plan, in the process.
So, you know, a couple of the projects we started, I mentioned Keller station as one of our developments. You know, we were in the middle of construction when COVID hit, you know. So now you gotta look at, okay, you want businesses to come into a place where they can't open, they can't get going, they can't launch. And some of them are retail, some of them are customer facing, some of them are restaurants and coffee shops. And looking at that plan and how do you shift and pivot? And that's where I really go back to network. And who do you have in your network?
How are you building your network? Because they're your biggest resource. They're your biggest cheerleaders. They're going to really, you know, think outside the box, bring their their expertise in their lane to really help the Miss risk mitigation. You know, we were the success story at Keller station was, you know, our, our coffee shop there, CXC coffee. They have grown 3x you know, since COVID, they pivoted. They actually did some really cool marketing during COVID. They did a curbside pickup because they didn't have a drive through.
We had a couple retail businesses. Hello, headband. Who does headbands and scrub apps? They have the softest fabric. They they actually moved into their first retail location from their home in March 2020, so you think, like right during the COVID shutdown, and they were actually so busy online, they would sell out within like three minutes, sometimes 30 seconds, and they couldn't even open their store because they couldn't keep inventory in they were just so it's, it's, how do you leverage your team to really enhance whatever the goal is, if it's growth, if it's risk mitigation, if it's, you know, avoiding that, that issue, leveraging that, and one way we do It, specifically with insurance, is we have our insurance agents, look at our contracts, look at our policies, where we where we, you know, at risk, right? And some of the policies, when people put together investment deals, as you know, is, you want to make sure you have a policy to protect your investors, protect your officers, as well as the building like it goes past just that physical structure and sitting down with someone you know, like yourself, where you can say, okay, hey guys, I want to show you where you're exposed, right. Here are some things. Here's some ways we can cut your premium without cutting a coverage. And that is where I see a lot of people.
Such as yourself coming as a strategic partner to the team, versus, hey, I'm just selling this product. I'm just selling this, this policy, right? You're coming from contribution, you know, with, you know, everything you're doing with the podcast and educating your audience. You're educating them to be, you know, again, to walk with you and then run with you. So where they come back and say, Hey, how can we get our monthly payment down, but not give exposure, right? Not given to more risk and and I think if people start to ask questions, right, and come from Curiosity, bring their team as truly strategic partners in their plans, then it really changed the game.
And that's that's where I would encourage people to go, especially when they're looking at risk. And risk mitigation is you're paying these people for their service, yes, but are you leaving money on the table by not leveraging their mind and their strategy and their strategic capability in your deals and into your network, and that is where I think a lot of people do leave a lot of money on the table.
https://www.linkedin.com/company/thekatiekim/
https://www.instagram.com/thekatiekim/
https://www.youtube.com/@TheKatieKim
Today, my guest is Jamison Manwaring. Jamison is a multi family real estate expert and CEO of Neighborhood Ventures, a leading real estate investment company utilizing crowd funding to enable investors to invest in multi family properties.
https://neighborhood.ventures/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamison-manwaring-a8188625/
J Darrin Gross:
I'd like to ask you, Jamison Manwaring what is the BIGGEST RISK?
Jamison Manwaring:
The biggest risk that I see today is continued oversupply of housing. And we always go back to econ 101, that it's supply and demand. And we have a lot of demand in our markets that we cover for housing. There are not enough people who can afford to buy a home, so more and more people are renting. But we've built a lot of apartments also. So if the supply of new apartments is stronger than the demand, then price either stays the same or can potentially move down. And so as I'm looking out the next few years, it really is when this new supply starts to go away and we get to more of an equilibrium with our supply and demand. The past few years, the biggest risk has been what would happen with interest rates, and where do we where do we land? And I think now we've kind of gone through that. Right now, what I'm looking at is future supply, what will happen in 2025 and as a appears right now, 2026 2728 the demand, the supply falls off a cliff. I do think, besides the the supply, what happens with insurance, is a hot topic right now, because we just saw what happened in with the fires in California, we're having a big blizzard right now on the southeast that is, is freezing people, and it's going to cause cause problems. And insurance is in some people think insurance is kind of a broken model when it comes to commercial real estate and how many and how you make insurance work. In some cases, when you buy an older building in Arizona, you might get one bid from an insurance broker, and that's all you can find one company who will will put insurance on the 1960s building, even if the building is all up to code and has updated electrical panels and other things, maybe one, one person, so one company where six, seven years ago, you'd have three or four quotes. So insurance is in a really precarious spot. And I do know it's hard in some places to get insurance. In Florida and Texas, with the hurricanes, and now with California, so that that we think it, I think it'll figure itself out, and whether that means higher premiums or or adjusting risks in other ways, so that there'll, there'll be a marketplace. But it is definitely a hot topic in something if you're an investor or an operator, you need to stay on top of because it's a changing landscape right now.
Today, my guest is Justin Goodin. Justin is the founder of Goodin Development, a multi family development firm based in Indiana that enables busy professionals to invest in real estate without the demands of being a landlord, and in just a minute, we're going to speak with Justin Goodin about multi family development.
J Darrin Gross:
I'd like to ask you, Justin Goodin, what is the BIGGEST RISK?.
Justin Goodin:
So I mean, my job as a developer is to obviously build a project on on time, on budget, you know, multiply my investors equity. The biggest risk for for my position is the uncertainty in the market in that, you know, three year time frame down the road when we go to, you know, one, lease up the property, sell the property. But you know, we have no idea where interest rates are going to be, where Cap rates are going to be, how the market is going to be in in three, four or five years down the road. So that, I think, is the biggest risk to me as a developer. I could build an amazing project on time, on budget, but when I get to the finish line, I go sell the property. Who knows where the market is going to be, who knows where interest rates are going to be? But I did everything right on my part for the past three years. It just so happens now that cap rates expanded values are down. Maybe that affects my refinance proceeds. Maybe that affects the what the buyer can pay for my property. So I would say, yeah, just the uncertainty of how the market is going to be in three years is my biggest risk as a developer.
https://goodindevelopment.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/justingoodin/
https://www.instagram.com/justin.goodin/